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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 3:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 23 games
74%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 17 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Timado · 16 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 16 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 14 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Hellscream · 14 games
43%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Timado · 13 games
54%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 22 games
36%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 15 games
53%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 14 games
71%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 14 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Bignum · 13 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 581 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
493 picks · 442 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
466 picks · 232 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
360 picks · 728 bans
47%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
327 picks · 751 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
325 picks · 508 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
316 picks · 272 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
303 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head7 – 0
Model total84% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:7
Shopify Rebellion 73%Wildcard Gaming 27%
The model gave 73% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 30:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTimado
48% · 460 games42% · 377 games
TinyYamSun
Tiny
Death Prophet
Death ProphetYopaj
47% · 48 games52% · 224 games
Storm SpiritRCY
Storm Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaDavai
64% · 215 games43% · 332 games
PangolierFayde
Pangolier
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHellscream
53% · 534 games38% · 109 games
WarlockSpeeed
Warlock
Bane
BaneSkem
66% · 58 games46% · 273 games
BatriderBignum
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct30:13
Shopify Rebellion 71%Wildcard Gaming 29%
The model gave 71% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 35:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordTimado
49% · 75 games49% · 203 games
SvenYamSun
Sven
Puck
PuckYopaj
54% · 185 games57% · 45 games
HuskarRCY
Huskar
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
56% · 217 games44% · 143 games
BrewmasterFayde
Brewmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHellscream
51% · 327 games48% · 309 games
BatriderSpeeed
Batrider
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSkem
53% · 152 games43% · 256 games
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct44:50
Shopify Rebellion 71%Wildcard Gaming 29%
The model gave 71% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 1:17:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenTimado
53% · 142 games44% · 309 games
GyrocopterYamSun
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYopaj
52% · 230 games45% · 72 games
LeshracRCY
Leshrac
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
47% · 158 games55% · 157 games
EnigmaFayde
Enigma
Chen
ChenSkem
60% · 107 games46% · 106 games
Chaos KnightBignum
Chaos Knight
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHellscream
52% · 323 games47% · 316 games
BatriderSpeeed
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 84%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3