?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 19 games
68%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 16 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 14 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 14 games
64%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 13 games
46%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Yopaj · 12 games
42%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 12 games
67%

Xtreme Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ame · 25 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 22 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 21 game
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 21 game
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 20 games
70%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
niu · 20 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 19 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
496 picks · 489 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
404 picks · 553 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
365 picks · 173 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
282 picks · 537 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
264 picks · 372 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
260 picks · 518 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
260 picks · 150 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
259 picks · 145 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total70% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:15
Shopify Rebellion 40%Xtreme Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 56:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTimado
56% · 184 games45% · 86 games
LunaAme
Luna
Timbersaw
TimbersawDavai
49% · 194 games46% · 216 games
TerrorbladeXxs
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
53% · 328 games45% · 407 games
TinyXm
Tiny
Warlock
WarlockSkem
61% · 163 games46% · 155 games
WindrangerXinQ
Windranger
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanHellscream
45% · 106 games54% · 111 games
Elder TitanPoloson
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed26:18
Shopify Rebellion 38%Xtreme Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 43:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTimado
46% · 140 games47% · 260 games
GyrocopterAme
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
TimbersawYopaj
45% · 104 games48% · 107 games
KunkkaXm
Kunkka
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
40% · 161 game57% · 124 games
TidehunterXxs
Tidehunter
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSkem
55% · 87 games70% · 46 games
TinkerPoloson
Tinker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHellscream
51% · 166 games47% · 121 game
RingmasterXinQ
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 70%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2