DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yangzhiganluloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
Abed · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fly · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Abed · 8 games
Yangzhiganlu
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
254 picks · 427 bans
Centaur Warrunner
250 picks · 347 bans
Phoenix
247 picks · 379 bans
Tusk
214 picks · 200 bans
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
Nature's Prophet
202 picks · 518 bans
Dark Willow
197 picks · 98 bans
Pugna
181 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:13
Shopify Rebellion 79%Yangzhiganlu 21%
The model gave 79% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 30:29.
Game 2prediction correct41:7
Shopify Rebellion 79%Yangzhiganlu 21%
The model gave 79% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 21:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 79%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2