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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:0
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 25 games
28%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 15 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
SOhY · 14 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 14 games
21%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 12 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 12 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
ряф^^ · 12 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 11 games
36%

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 29 games
66%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
46%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 24 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Cloud · 21 game
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 20 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
53%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
464 picks · 206 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 579 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
402 picks · 748 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
388 picks · 547 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
388 picks · 156 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 688 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 550 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
331 picks · 295 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 41%
Hero pool strength59% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:28
SIBE Team 37%1w Team 63%
The model gave 63% on 1w Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 49:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckряф^^
53% · 148 games44% · 47 games
ZeusChira JUNIOR
Zeus
Riki
Rikiselfhate
little data50% · 20 games
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
Chaos Knight
Enchantress
EnchantressSOhY
51% · 163 games41% · 122 games
KunkkaCloud
Kunkka
Tiny
Tinysunset
58% · 175 games46% · 119 games
MiranaRESPECT
Mirana
50% · 178 games
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed37:19
SIBE Team 31%1w Team 69%
The model gave 69% on 1w Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 38:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageselfhate
50% · 54 games57% · 112 games
LifestealerMunkushi~
Lifestealer
Kunkka
Kunkkaряф^^
47% · 250 games59% · 103 games
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
Dragon Knight
Batrider
BatriderSOhY
54% · 330 games54% · 191 game
MarsCloud
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsunset
43% · 134 games43% · 227 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
48% · 135 games
GyrocopterRESPECT
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 79%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2