Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:0series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4 Zoomersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SIBE Team
Bloodseekeroften banned
nesfeer · 8 games
Skywrath Magesignature
y0nd · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 7 games
Pugnaoften banned
y0nd · 7 games
Doomoften banned
klassnokruto · 6 games
Ember Spiritsignature
erase · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
Arti_Shock · 6 games
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
424 picks · 200 bans
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 495 bans
Techies
311 picks · 308 bans
Batrider
286 picks · 487 bans
Undying
286 picks · 475 bans
Morphling
285 picks · 546 bans
Timbersaw
258 picks · 628 bans
Storm Spirit
256 picks · 469 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% 4 Zoomers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% 4 Zoomers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:10
SIBE Team 27%4 Zoomers 73%
The model gave 73% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 32:37.
Game 2prediction missed11:32
SIBE Team 27%4 Zoomers 73%
The model gave 73% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 26:45.
Model check result
Model favorite4 Zoomers · 73%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2