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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:1
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ASAKURAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 21 game
24%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 11 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 11 games
27%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 10 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ряф^^ · 10 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 8 games
38%

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
457 picks · 201 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
447 picks · 673 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
440 picks · 839 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
425 picks · 590 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
410 picks · 179 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 626 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 685 bans
52%
Techies
Techies
386 picks · 299 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 45%
Hero pool strength62% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:23
SIBE Team 28%ASAKURA 72%
The model gave 72% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 43:03.
Game 2prediction correct32:45
SIBE Team 28%ASAKURA 72%
The model gave 72% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 54:07.
Game 3prediction missed43:44
SIBE Team 28%ASAKURA 72%
The model gave 72% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 1:01:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 72%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3