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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASAKURAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 25 games
28%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 18 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
SOhY · 15 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 14 games
21%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 14 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
ряф^^ · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 12 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 12 games
50%

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
476 picks · 210 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
431 picks · 599 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
390 picks · 738 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
381 picks · 535 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
379 picks · 154 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 302 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 700 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
331 picks · 541 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 38%
Hero pool strength62% ASAKURA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:33
SIBE Team 44%ASAKURA 56%
The model gave 56% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 54:34.
Game 2prediction missed28:26
SIBE Team 44%ASAKURA 56%
The model gave 56% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 57:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 56%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2