RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamloss 1:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Dragon Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SIBE Team
Rubick
sunset · 32 games
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
sunset · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 17 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 15 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
SOhY · 14 games
Dark Willowoften banned
sunset · 13 games
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 13 games
Dragon Esports
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 7 games
Ursaoften banned
paw · 6 games
Lifestealeroften banned
paw · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
378 picks · 633 bans
Gyrocopter
318 picks · 367 bans
Dark Willow
317 picks · 350 bans
Clockwerk
313 picks · 441 bans
Weaver
299 picks · 538 bans
Centaur Warrunner
291 picks · 381 bans
Rubick
287 picks · 173 bans
Hoodwink
284 picks · 177 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% SIBE Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:11
SIBE Team 49%Dragon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 30:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spiritselfhate
Gyrocopterpaw
WarlockSOhY
Broodmotherdualrazee
Nyx Assassinsunset
Primal BeastNorma
Game 2prediction missed18:37
SIBE Team 56%Dragon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 35:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinyselfhate
Svenpaw
Rubicksunset
Shadow Fienddualrazee
GyrocopterSOhY
MagnusNorma
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 56%
Accuracy by game0 of 2