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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 19 games
26%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 10 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Rein · 9 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 9 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 8 games
38%
Luna
Luna
nesfeer · 8 games
13%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ряф^^ · 8 games
50%

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 31 game
42%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Riddys · 22 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 19 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
29%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
69%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 16 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 768 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
469 picks · 935 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
457 picks · 201 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 611 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
443 picks · 342 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
439 picks · 692 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
438 picks · 198 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
430 picks · 734 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:34
SIBE Team 42%Natus Vincere Junior 58%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 49:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenselfhate
47% · 210 games48% · 261 game
Primal Beastpma
Primal Beast
Pangolier
Pangolierряф^^
48% · 366 games57% · 192 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsunset
50% · 139 games50% · 135 games
Slarkgotthejuice
Slark
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSOhY
50% · 238 games52% · 167 games
GyrocopterDaze
Gyrocopter
49% · 198 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Game 2prediction correct12:30
SIBE Team 42%Natus Vincere Junior 58%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 29:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidselfhate
51% · 302 games50% · 140 games
Lifestealergotthejuice
Lifestealer
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinряф^^
43% · 194 games56% · 360 games
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Rubick
Rubicksunset
48% · 436 games50% · 227 games
Marspma
Mars
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSOhY
53% · 295 games51% · 335 games
BatriderRiddys
Batrider
49% · 165 games
GyrocopterDaze
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 66%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2