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RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamloss 1:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 34 games
41%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 25 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
sunset · 17 games
41%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 17 games
29%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
SOhY · 15 games
47%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 15 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
sunset · 13 games
31%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 13 games
77%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 39 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 25 games
40%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 25 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 23 games
57%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 23 games
61%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 20 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 18 games
39%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 659 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
321 picks · 366 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
316 picks · 450 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 351 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
307 picks · 574 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
301 picks · 186 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
292 picks · 208 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 378 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:7
SIBE Team 45%Natus Vincere Junior 55%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 29:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Rubick
Rubickselfhate
47% · 306 games37% · 109 games
Razorgotthejuice
Razor
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsunset
58% · 75 games50% · 98 games
Brewmasterpma
Brewmaster
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSOhY
49% · 105 games57% · 125 games
Primal BeastNiku
Primal Beast
46% · 15 games
Shadow ShamanDaze
Shadow Shaman
53% · 139 games
SvenRiddys
Sven
Game 2prediction correct7:27
SIBE Team 47%Natus Vincere Junior 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 27:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendselfhate
56% · 28 games50% · 6 games
Arc WardenNiku
Arc Warden
Batrider
Batridersunset
55% · 229 games45% · 82 games
Troll Warlordgotthejuice
Troll Warlord
Phoenix
PhoenixSOhY
46% · 184 games44% · 145 games
Vengeful Spiritpma
Vengeful Spirit
53% · 20 games
Witch DoctorRiddys
Witch Doctor
52% · 188 games
TinyDaze
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2