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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:0
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
nesfeer · 8 games
38%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
y0nd · 7 games
43%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
klassnokruto · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
erase · 6 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 6 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 6 games
17%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Arti_Shock · 6 games
33%

One Move

Disruptor
Disruptor
Panto · 17 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 14 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Panto · 13 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 12 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 12 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Gilgir · 11 games
45%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Gilgir · 11 games
27%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
439 picks · 209 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 515 bans
51%
Techies
Techies
328 picks · 344 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
305 picks · 521 bans
53%
Morphling
Morphling
296 picks · 575 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
295 picks · 480 bans
46%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
276 picks · 657 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
259 picks · 495 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:27
SIBE Team 34%One Move 66%
The model gave 66% on One Move — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 51:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinnesfeer
42% · 44 games60% · 160 games
Primal BeastAinkrad
Primal Beast
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
49% · 341 game47% · 109 games
SlarkKami
Slark
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerklassnokruto
48% · 32 games52% · 81 game
TidehunterAfterLife
Tidehunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonemptiness
49% · 117 games49% · 111 games
Treant ProtectorXakoda
Treant Protector
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRein
44% · 27 games55% · 100 games
Skywrath MagePanto
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction missed32:11
SIBE Team 35%One Move 65%
The model gave 65% on One Move — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 36:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirennesfeer
50% · 104 games50% · 56 games
Earth SpiritAinkrad
Earth Spirit
Brewmaster
Brewmasterklassnokruto
38% · 39 games53% · 111 games
Faceless VoidKami
Faceless Void
Primal Beast
Primal Beasterase
52% · 192 games49% · 60 games
PudgeAfterLife
Pudge
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeemptiness
39% · 28 games60% · 176 games
Nature's ProphetPanto
Nature's Prophet
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageRein
47% · 61 game51% · 21 game
WarlockXakoda
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 78%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2