Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PAPAYA TEAMloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SIBE Team
Undyingoften banned
Arti_Shock · 1 game
PAPAYA TEAM
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
738 picks · 467 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 573 bans
Tusk
526 picks · 452 bans
Tiny
524 picks · 380 bans
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 581 bans
Snapfire
381 picks · 253 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 610 bans
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 737 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% PAPAYA TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:22
SIBE Team 49%PAPAYA TEAM 51%
The model gave 51% on PAPAYA TEAM — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 36:45.
Game 2prediction correct36:44
SIBE Team 49%PAPAYA TEAM 51%
The model gave 51% on PAPAYA TEAM — the game was taken by PAPAYA TEAM in 50:53.
Game 3prediction missed0:8
SIBE Team 49%PAPAYA TEAM 51%
The model gave 51% on PAPAYA TEAM — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 10:07.
Model check result
Model favoritePAPAYA TEAM · 51%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3