Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tickleswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SIBE Team
Bloodseekeroften banned
nesfeer · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 8 games
Skywrath Magesignature
y0nd · 8 games
Pugnaoften banned
y0nd · 7 games
Doomoften banned
klassnokruto · 6 games
Ember Spiritsignature
erase · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
nesfeer · 6 games
Team Tickles
Invokeroften banned
Adzantick · 2 games
Clockwerk
NARMAN · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
BOOM · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
NARMAN · 1 game
Elder Titan
Dukalis · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
Shad · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
395 picks · 193 bans
Ember Spirit
311 picks · 447 bans
Undying
270 picks · 451 bans
Techies
261 picks · 215 bans
Batrider
249 picks · 408 bans
Morphling
249 picks · 458 bans
Storm Spirit
243 picks · 414 bans
Pangolier
228 picks · 449 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength61% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:32
SIBE Team 45%Team Tickles 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 31:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svennesfeer
Templar AssassinShad
Invokererase
TidehunterBOOM
Primal Beastklassnokruto
PangolierAdzantick
Techiesemptiness
Nature's ProphetDukalis
GrimstrokeRein
EnchantressNARMAN
Game 2prediction correct22:35
SIBE Team 42%Team Tickles 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassinnesfeer
SvenShad
Beastmasterklassnokruto
PangolierAdzantick
Primal Beasterase
Dark SeerBOOM
Shadow Demonemptiness
EarthshakerNARMAN
WarlockRein
DisruptorDukalis
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 64%
Series resultTeam Tickles 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2