The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 1:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The Retryloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SIBE Team
Rubick
sunset · 30 games
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 21 game
Gyrocopter
SOhY · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 15 games
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 15 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 13 games
The Retry
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
455 picks · 729 bans
Centaur Warrunner
434 picks · 628 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 404 bans
Batrider
405 picks · 758 bans
Rubick
389 picks · 162 bans
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 1038 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 746 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% The Retry
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct54:22
SIBE Team 76%The Retry 24%
The model gave 76% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 31:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 76%
Series resultSIBE Team 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1