CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SIBE Team
Rubick
sunset · 34 games
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 25 games
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
sunset · 15 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
SOhY · 15 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 15 games
Dark Willowoften banned
sunset · 14 games
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 14 games
Twisted Minds
Hoodwink
Pablo · 24 games
Tinyoften banned
Pablo · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
Pablo · 19 games
Phoenixoften banned
Handsken · 15 games
Sven
Shad · 15 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shad · 14 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 14 games
Rubick
Pablo · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
397 picks · 615 bans
Gyrocopter
329 picks · 363 bans
Dark Willow
319 picks · 350 bans
Centaur Warrunner
315 picks · 410 bans
Clockwerk
308 picks · 423 bans
Rubick
306 picks · 164 bans
Crystal Maiden
304 picks · 116 bans
Weaver
302 picks · 497 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:24
SIBE Team 52%Twisted Minds 48%
The model gave 52% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 30:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windrangerряф^^
BroodmotherShad
Monkey Kingrincyq
Storm SpiritAdzantick
Batridersunset
SvenMinD_ContRoL
JakiroSOhY
PhoenixHandsken
48% · 212 games
RubickPablo
Game 2prediction missed18:48
SIBE Team 51%Twisted Minds 49%
The model gave 51% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 27:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invokerselfhate
WeaverShad
Windrangerряф^^
Ember SpiritAdzantick
Brewmasterrincyq
PangolierMinD_ContRoL
Shadow Demonsunset
HoodwinkPablo
ClockwerkSOhY
SvenHandsken
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 56%
Series resultTwisted Minds 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2