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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:1
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 22 games
23%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 13 games
23%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 13 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 11 games
36%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ряф^^ · 10 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Rein · 9 games
44%

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 29 games
62%
Techies
Techies
rue · 24 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 20 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 19 games
53%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 18 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 15 games
40%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Satanic · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 200 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
429 picks · 581 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
419 picks · 763 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
407 picks · 584 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
398 picks · 163 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 708 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
352 picks · 576 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 1076 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total80% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:31
SIBE Team 31%Yellow Submarine 69%
The model gave 69% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 30:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenselfhate
54% · 143 games58% · 119 games
Naga SirenSatanic
Naga Siren
Morphling
Morphlingряф^^
47% · 185 games51% · 174 games
Doomemptiness
Doom
Tiny
Tinysunset
52% · 222 games50% · 134 games
Razorerase
Razor
Mirana
MiranaSOhY
49% · 148 games44% · 202 games
Lionrue
Lion
45% · 69 games
Elder Titanasdekor_r
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed38:26
SIBE Team 34%Yellow Submarine 66%
The model gave 66% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 32:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckряф^^
50% · 234 games48% · 177 games
LunaSatanic
Luna
Spectre
Spectreselfhate
59% · 64 games47% · 162 games
Timbersawerase
Timbersaw
Tiny
Tinysunset
51% · 317 games49% · 189 games
Primal Beastemptiness
Primal Beast
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSOhY
49% · 291 game49% · 179 games
Lionrue
Lion
49% · 199 games
Shadow Demonasdekor_r
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction missed34:16
SIBE Team 33%Yellow Submarine 67%
The model gave 67% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 32:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckряф^^
54% · 203 games43% · 236 games
MorphlingSatanic
Morphling
Monkey King
Monkey Kingselfhate
54% · 125 games51% · 148 games
Kunkkaerase
Kunkka
Rubick
Rubicksunset
47% · 405 games50% · 165 games
Beastmasteremptiness
Beastmaster
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSOhY
52% · 186 games49% · 129 games
Dark Willowrue
Dark Willow
47% · 241 game
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 80%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3