ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
sickloss 0:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Yellow Submarinewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
sick
No games played over 6 months.
Yellow Submarine
Dark Willow
rue · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 3 games
Svenoften banned
Satanic · 3 games
Grimstroke
rue · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
Shadow Demon
rue · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Satanic · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
180 picks · 375 bans
Grimstroke
178 picks · 158 bans
Sven
170 picks · 247 bans
Dark Willow
166 picks · 70 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 236 bans
Phoenix
148 picks · 189 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 33%
Hero pool strength60% sick
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% sick
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:11
sick 60%Yellow Submarine 40%
The model gave 60% on sick — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 20:16.
Model check result
Model favoritesick · 60%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1