FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionSsifr00win 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MMjolnirloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
sifr00
No games played over 6 months.
Mjolnir
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
293 picks · 675 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 108 bans
Tusk
258 picks · 257 bans
Dawnbreaker
255 picks · 628 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 527 bans
Marci
244 picks · 548 bans
Disruptor
242 picks · 208 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% sifr00
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% sifr00
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:11
sifr00 57%Mjolnir 43%
The model gave 57% on sifr00 — the game was taken by sifr00 in 29:49.
Game 2prediction correct10:26
sifr00 57%Mjolnir 43%
The model gave 57% on sifr00 — the game was taken by sifr00 in 26:42.
Model check result
Model favoritesifr00 · 57%
Series resultsifr00 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2