FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionSsifr00loss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
sifr00
No games played over 6 months.
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
Tiny
Stormstormer · 20 games
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 17 games
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 17 games
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 16 games
Shadow Demon
Daze · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
386 picks · 351 bans
Snapfire
344 picks · 174 bans
Puck
340 picks · 864 bans
Pugna
296 picks · 343 bans
Warlock
284 picks · 127 bans
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 791 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 248 bans
Batrider
272 picks · 686 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% sifr00
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:28
sifr00 15%OG 85%
The model gave 85% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 19:37.
Game 2prediction correct1:20
sifr00 15%OG 85%
The model gave 85% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 10:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 85%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2