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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sigma.YNTloss 1:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HFwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sigma.YNT

Tiny
Tinysignature
queezy · 29 games
62%
Marci
Marcioften banned
kur0patbI4 · 17 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
toshiyb · 16 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
VANSKOR · 16 games
44%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
queezy · 15 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
kur0patbI4 · 12 games
83%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
toshiyb · 12 games
33%

HF

Tiny
Tiny
weebian · 11 games
27%
Tusk
Tusk
toshiyb · 10 games
40%
Techies
Techies
weebian · 9 games
56%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
SOhY · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
13%
Mirana
Mirana
SOhY · 8 games
25%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Actor · 7 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
669 picks · 430 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
577 picks · 542 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
557 picks · 442 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
480 picks · 538 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
390 picks · 383 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
381 picks · 206 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
346 picks · 527 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
341 picks · 487 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 33%
Hero pool strength59% Sigma.YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Sigma.YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:17
Sigma.YNT 65%HF 35%
The model gave 65% on Sigma.YNT — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 22:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slarkv1olent-
52% · 95 games48% · 244 games
Linaxannii
Lina
Windranger
Windrangerforyou
46% · 58 games48% · 251 game
Pangoliererase
Pangolier
Lycan
Lycankur0patbI4
47% · 126 games57% · 133 games
Primal BeastActor
Primal Beast
Rubick
Rubickqueezy
50% · 435 games49% · 245 games
Clockwerkweebian
Clockwerk
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorVANSKOR
52% · 279 games51% · 120 games
EnchantressSOhY
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed11:30
Sigma.YNT 66%HF 34%
The model gave 66% on Sigma.YNT — the game was taken by HF in 36:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendv1olent-
39% · 137 games58% · 137 games
Naga Sirenxannii
Naga Siren
Leshrac
Leshracforyou
59% · 201 game52% · 130 games
Timbersawerase
Timbersaw
Broodmother
Broodmotherkur0patbI4
47% · 214 games50% · 207 games
Primal BeastActor
Primal Beast
Tiny
Tinyqueezy
48% · 525 games52% · 228 games
Crystal MaidenSOhY
Crystal Maiden
Oracle
OracleVANSKOR
41% · 24 games48% · 399 games
Rubickweebian
Rubick
Game 3prediction missed22:47
Sigma.YNT 65%HF 35%
The model gave 65% on Sigma.YNT — the game was taken by HF in 50:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
Tinkerforyou
55% · 13 games59% · 115 games
Naga Sirenxannii
Naga Siren
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerv1olent-
48% · 90 games48% · 396 games
Ember Spiriterase
Ember Spirit
Batrider
Batriderkur0patbI4
45% · 187 games54% · 56 games
Spirit BreakerActor
Spirit Breaker
Tiny
Tinyqueezy
47% · 523 games53% · 357 games
Miranaweebian
Mirana
Rubick
RubickVANSKOR
43% · 427 games57% · 316 games
Treant ProtectorSOhY
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteSigma.YNT · 75%
Series resultHF 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3