Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sigma.YNTloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sigma.YNT
Tiny
queezy · 31 game
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 18 games
Batridersignature
toshiyb · 16 games
Skywrath Magesignature
queezy · 16 games
Dazzle
dSa · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
dSa · 13 games
Marcioften banned
kur0patbI4 · 13 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
v1olent- · 12 games
Hydra
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 21 game
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 12 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 12 games
Silencersignature
HappyDyurara · 9 games
Batridersignature
Worick · 8 games
Lycansignature
Cloud · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 7 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Kami · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
432 picks · 435 bans
Rubick
429 picks · 283 bans
Tiny
418 picks · 392 bans
Mirana
315 picks · 319 bans
Treant Protector
281 picks · 334 bans
Snapfire
253 picks · 134 bans
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 605 bans
Crystal Maiden
224 picks · 159 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 76%
Hero pool strength61% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:41
Sigma.YNT 40%Hydra 60%
The model gave 60% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 42:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingv1olent-
LinaKami
Ember Spiritforyou
DoomCloud
Marcikur0patbI4
BatriderWorick
Skywrath Magequeezy
EnchantressLefitan
Treant ProtectorVANSKOR
ClockwerkHappyDyurara
Game 2prediction correct16:35
Sigma.YNT 37%Hydra 63%
The model gave 63% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 31:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirenv1olent-
Shadow FiendKami
Death Prophetforyou
InvokerWorick
Primal Beastkur0patbI4
Dark SeerCloud
Rubickqueezy
TuskLefitan
SnapfireVANSKOR
ClockwerkHappyDyurara
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 68%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2