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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sigma.YNTwin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
IVYloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sigma.YNT

Tiny
Tiny
queezy · 24 games
58%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
VANSKOR · 17 games
47%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
v1olent- · 13 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
foryou · 12 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 11 games
36%
Doom
Doomsignature
kur0patbI4 · 10 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 10 games
40%
Marci
Marcisignature
kur0patbI4 · 10 games
60%

IVY

Mirana
Miranasignature
Qupe · 20 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
Qupe · 20 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Mo13ei · 18 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 14 games
79%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 13 games
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
jmn- · 13 games
31%
Luna
Luna
pio65 · 12 games
33%
Doom
Doomsignature
OwnedMe · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
868 picks · 607 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
621 picks · 430 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
531 picks · 544 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
528 picks · 432 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
520 picks · 836 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
466 picks · 324 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
460 picks · 968 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
417 picks · 304 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Sigma.YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Sigma.YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:11
Sigma.YNT 59%IVY 41%
The model gave 59% on Sigma.YNT — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 30:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomkur0patbI4
50% · 158 games45% · 70 games
Lifestealerxannii
Lifestealer
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightDarkLord^
47% · 131 game49% · 402 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritforyou
53% · 163 games53% · 375 games
MiranaQupe
Mirana
Rubick
Rubickqueezy
44% · 432 games58% · 228 games
Disruptorjmn-
Disruptor
Enchantress
EnchantressVANSKOR
49% · 191 game
Game 2prediction missed35:35
Sigma.YNT 57%IVY 43%
The model gave 57% on Sigma.YNT — the game was taken by IVY in 1:02:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerDarkLord^
43% · 112 games47% · 50 games
Anti-Magexannii
Anti-Mage
Slardar
Slardarkur0patbI4
43% · 31 game54% · 316 games
Death ProphetStojkov
Death Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritforyou
50% · 116 games47% · 71 game
EarthshakerQupe
Earthshaker
Rubick
Rubickqueezy
47% · 352 games65% · 196 games
Disruptorjmn-
Disruptor
Warlock
WarlockVANSKOR
47% · 22 games
Game 3prediction correct28:16
Sigma.YNT 59%IVY 41%
The model gave 59% on Sigma.YNT — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 35:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
53% · 211 games50% · 177 games
Ursaxannii
Ursa
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkur0patbI4
55% · 247 games50% · 506 games
Death ProphetStojkov
Death Prophet
Puck
Puckforyou
47% · 188 games53% · 412 games
MiranaQupe
Mirana
Enchantress
EnchantressVANSKOR
45% · 210 games45% · 236 games
Crystal Maidenjmn-
Crystal Maiden
Rubick
Rubickqueezy
50% · 475 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSigma.YNT · 67%
Series resultSigma.YNT 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3