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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sigma.YNTloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sigma.YNT

Tiny
Tiny
queezy · 27 games
52%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 17 games
35%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
VANSKOR · 17 games
47%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
v1olent- · 13 games
54%
Doom
Doomsignature
kur0patbI4 · 12 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
foryou · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kur0patbI4 · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 11 games
45%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 13 games
54%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 13 games
62%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
so bad · 13 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 11 games
82%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Hellscream · 10 games
70%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Kiritych · 10 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1003 picks · 683 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
657 picks · 480 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
606 picks · 957 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
554 picks · 433 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
522 picks · 360 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
518 picks · 1176 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
514 picks · 370 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
499 picks · 370 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:41
Sigma.YNT 33%Nemiga Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageWoE
50% · 67 games53% · 158 games
Ursav1olent-
Ursa
Viper
Viperkur0patbI4
47% · 125 games48% · 366 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightforyou
53% · 251 game46% · 449 games
SnapfireCorrupted
Snapfire
Rubick
Rubickqueezy
47% · 676 games52% · 238 games
Monkey KingHellscream
Monkey King
Clockwerk
ClockwerkVANSKOR
50% · 420 games55% · 328 games
Disruptorso bad
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct25:33
Sigma.YNT 33%Nemiga Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 42:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mirana
Miranakur0patbI4
56% · 438 games51% · 149 games
TidehunterCorrupted
Tidehunter
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritforyou
48% · 428 games49% · 519 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerWoE
40% · 187 games55% · 312 games
Monkey Kingv1olent-
Monkey King
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightqueezy
52% · 246 games47% · 536 games
SnapfireHellscream
Snapfire
Rubick
RubickVANSKOR
47% · 660 games55% · 443 games
Disruptorso bad
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 76%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2