Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Silkloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Balrogswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Silk
Linaoften banned
payk · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
payk · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
payk · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
payk · 1 game
Sven
payk · 1 game
Balrogs
Rubicksignature
Demon · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 3 games
Jakiro
ShakaLord · 3 games
Razoroften banned
drakesh1t · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
ShakaLord · 2 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
drakesh1t · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Silenceroften banned
ShakaLord · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
371 picks · 355 bans
Tusk
337 picks · 318 bans
Marci
264 picks · 499 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 575 bans
Undying
246 picks · 458 bans
Primal Beast
236 picks · 601 bans
Snapfire
222 picks · 128 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 353 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:36
Silk 48%Balrogs 52%
The model gave 52% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 33:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doompayk
Ember SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
45% · 7 games
LifestealerDM
57% · 10 games
Venomancerdrakesh1t
59% · 30 games
ClockwerkDemon
47% · 13 games
SilencerShakaLord
Game 2prediction correct20:31
Silk 48%Balrogs 52%
The model gave 52% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 29:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doompayk
Chaos KnightDM
56% · 14 games
Shadow FiendÑengoflow KELOKE
55% · 29 games
Beastmasterdrakesh1t
51% · 33 games
MiranaDemon
43% · 36 games
DawnbreakerShakaLord
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 52%
Series resultBalrogs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2