Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Silkwin 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inverseloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Silk
No games played over 6 months.
Inverse
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
Lich
Slaw · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 310 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 261 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
252 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
237 picks · 513 bans
Primal Beast
222 picks · 557 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 320 bans
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 119 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength59% Silk
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Silk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:22
Silk 56%Inverse 44%
The model gave 56% on Silk — the game was taken by Inverse in 34:19.
Game 2prediction correct42:8
Silk 56%Inverse 44%
The model gave 56% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 29:25.
Game 3prediction correct49:18
Silk 56%Inverse 44%
The model gave 56% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 31:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteSilk · 56%
Series resultSilk 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3