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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Silkwin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kaiserloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Silk

Muerta
Muertaoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
d1smar · 2 games
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
DaaD- · 2 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
d1smar · 2 games
100%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
100%

Kaiser

Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Argius · 3 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Valquiria · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Valquiria · 2 games
0%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
d1smar · 2 games
100%
Axe
Axe
Valquiria · 1 game
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Valquiria · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
d1smar · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
d1smar · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
267 picks · 438 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
245 picks · 381 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
241 picks · 335 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
217 picks · 308 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
214 picks · 207 bans
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
208 picks · 101 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
193 picks · 497 bans
53%
Kunkka
Kunkka
188 picks · 511 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Kaiser
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Silk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:16
Silk 51%Kaiser 49%
The model gave 51% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 36:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerDM
55% · 67 games47% · 41 game
GyrocopterArgius
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterHermit
51% · 155 games52% · 71 game
Queen of PainTaO
Queen of Pain
Phoenix
PhoenixShakaLord
47% · 161 game51% · 166 games
Nature's ProphetCara
Nature's Prophet
46% · 105 games
Centaur WarrunnerValquiria
Centaur Warrunner
Game 2prediction missed36:29
Silk 53%Kaiser 47%
The model gave 53% on Silk — the game was taken by Kaiser in 50:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonDM
49% · 43 games47% · 81 game
MorphlingArgius
Morphling
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerHermit
51% · 112 games56% · 120 games
PangolierValquiria
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixShakaLord
48% · 182 games53% · 9 games
ViperTaO
Viper
49% · 127 games
TuskCara
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct35:15
Silk 51%Kaiser 49%
The model gave 51% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 41:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingDM
51% · 170 games44% · 60 games
BloodseekerArgius
Bloodseeker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerHermit
53% · 111 games49% · 126 games
TimbersawValquiria
Timbersaw
Clockwerk
ClockwerkShakaLord
57% · 233 games48% · 208 games
TinyTaO
Tiny
43% · 120 games
PhoenixCara
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteSilk · 51%
Series resultSilk 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3