Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Silkloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
RERandoms Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Silk
No games played over 6 months.
Randoms Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 272 bans
Marci
295 picks · 545 bans
Tusk
278 picks · 230 bans
Undying
271 picks · 456 bans
Pangolier
244 picks · 474 bans
Primal Beast
230 picks · 530 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 314 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Silk
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Silk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:25
Silk 56%Randoms Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Silk — the game was taken by Randoms Esports in 21:01.
Game 2prediction missed25:14
Silk 56%Randoms Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Silk — the game was taken by Randoms Esports in 25:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteSilk · 56%
Series resultRandoms Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2