Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Silkwin 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
South America Rejectsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Silk
No games played over 6 months.
South America Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 270 bans
Marci
296 picks · 546 bans
Tusk
279 picks · 222 bans
Undying
273 picks · 453 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 469 bans
Primal Beast
230 picks · 528 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 312 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 112 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Silk
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Silk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:54
Silk 64%South America Rejects 36%
The model gave 64% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 48:35.
Game 2prediction missed39:33
Silk 64%South America Rejects 36%
The model gave 64% on Silk — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 55:06.
Game 3prediction correct30:43
Silk 64%South America Rejects 36%
The model gave 64% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 1:05:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteSilk · 64%
Series resultSilk 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3