Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Silkwin 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TRocketloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Silk
Doomoften banned
payk · 2 games
Linaoften banned
payk · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Lissex · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
payk · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
payk · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Lissex · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
payk · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
payk · 1 game
TRocket
Broodmotheroften banned
Greedy · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Pamplona · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
H1j4ck · 2 games
Enchantress
Pamplona · 2 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
CarJua · 2 games
Rubick
Pamplona · 2 games
Underlordoften banned
H1j4ck · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Pamplona · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
789 picks · 534 bans
Tiny
560 picks · 403 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 441 bans
Treant Protector
529 picks · 573 bans
Nature's Prophet
429 picks · 703 bans
Snapfire
400 picks · 293 bans
Death Prophet
395 picks · 780 bans
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 827 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Silk
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total63% Silk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:10
Silk 56%TRocket 44%
The model gave 56% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 33:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawLissex
SlarkCarJua
61% · 24 games
Primal BeastH1j4ck
52% · 54 games
SnapfirePamplona
45% · 16 games
AbaddonAretes
Game 2prediction missed29:41
Silk 58%TRocket 42%
The model gave 58% on Silk — the game was taken by TRocket in 55:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetLissex
LunaCarJua
44% · 104 games
Death ProphetH1j4ck
45% · 78 games
SnapfirePamplona
52% · 61 game
ClockwerkAretes
Game 3prediction correct30:11
Silk 58%TRocket 42%
The model gave 58% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciLissex
LunaCarJua
37% · 26 games
TidehunterH1j4ck
44% · 53 games
HoodwinkPamplona
48% · 81 game
UndyingAretes
Model check result
Model favoriteSilk · 63%
Series resultSilk 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3