DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Silkloss 0:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Silk
Clockwerk
Kiri · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
Leshrac
Leostyle · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
Phoenix
Kiri · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
Kiri · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
Virtus.pro
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 28 games
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 23 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 20 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 20 games
Pucksignature
Abed · 19 games
Warlock
Fly · 17 games
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 16 games
Chenoften banned
Fly · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
597 picks · 935 bans
Tusk
543 picks · 426 bans
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 642 bans
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 654 bans
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 947 bans
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 655 bans
Mars
387 picks · 530 bans
Warlock
379 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:30
Silk 31%Virtus.pro 69%
The model gave 69% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 22:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AxeAdrx
UnderlordSabeRLight-
UrsaDaaD-
AbaddonTimado
Skywrath MageGenek
SlardarAbed
RingmasterCHAAANNN
GrimstrokeHellscream
49% · 460 games
JakiroFly
Game 2prediction correct12:42
Silk 32%Virtus.pro 68%
The model gave 68% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 35:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautDaaD-
Troll WarlordTimado
SlardarAdrx
Ember SpiritAbed
MagnusGenek
TidehunterSabeRLight-
JakiroCHAAANNN
Shadow ShamanFly
53% · 329 games
RingmasterHellscream
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 82%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2