Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
simply TOOBASEDwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Byzantine Raidersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Byzantine Raiders
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
66 picks · 145 bans
Puck
57 picks · 157 bans
Earth Spirit
54 picks · 43 bans
Void Spirit
48 picks · 92 bans
Phoenix
44 picks · 55 bans
Rubick
44 picks · 23 bans
Undying
44 picks · 66 bans
Monkey King
42 picks · 91 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% simply TOOBASED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:17
simply TOOBASED 54%Byzantine Raiders 46%
The model gave 54% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by Byzantine Raiders in 35:26.
Game 2prediction missed19:38
simply TOOBASED 54%Byzantine Raiders 46%
The model gave 54% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by Byzantine Raiders in 40:34.
Model check result
Model favoritesimply TOOBASED · 54%
Series resultsimply TOOBASED 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2