Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
simply TOOBASEDloss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LBLucky Birdwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Lucky Bird
Puckoften banned
BlackSoul · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
BlackSoul · 2 games
Tusk
FrancisLee · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Rises · 1 game
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 1 game
Hoodwink
FrancisLee · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
522 picks · 448 bans
Mars
459 picks · 683 bans
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 544 bans
Bane
405 picks · 286 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 594 bans
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 562 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 629 bans
Chaos Knight
332 picks · 651 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 83%
Hero pool strength59% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:32
simply TOOBASED 39%Lucky Bird 61%
The model gave 61% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 32:55.
Game 2prediction correct35:10
simply TOOBASED 39%Lucky Bird 61%
The model gave 61% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 32:43.
Game 3prediction correct23:12
simply TOOBASED 39%Lucky Bird 61%
The model gave 61% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 21:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 61%
Series resultLucky Bird 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3