Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
simply TOOBASEDwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Cutloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
The Cut
Void Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
TingleK1ng · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 3 games
Iooften banned
Scourge McDuck · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TingleK1ng · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Lil_Nick · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
407 picks · 943 bans
Void Spirit
373 picks · 533 bans
Death Prophet
348 picks · 699 bans
Mars
328 picks · 545 bans
Grimstroke
315 picks · 312 bans
Tusk
295 picks · 220 bans
Lion
281 picks · 157 bans
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% The Cut
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% simply TOOBASED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoritesimply TOOBASED · 53%
Series resultsimply TOOBASED 2:0
Series predictioncorrect