DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionSSkyreaverswin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CDUB Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Skyreavers
No games played over 6 months.
CDUB Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
510 picks · 322 bans
Dark Willow
435 picks · 230 bans
Mirana
396 picks · 176 bans
Winter Wyvern
345 picks · 313 bans
Ember Spirit
324 picks · 497 bans
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 285 bans
Windranger
283 picks · 130 bans
Earth Spirit
282 picks · 502 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Skyreavers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Skyreavers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Skyreavers 55%CDUB Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Skyreavers — the game was taken by Skyreavers.
Game 2prediction correct
Skyreavers 55%CDUB Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Skyreavers — the game was taken by Skyreavers.
Model check result
Model favoriteSkyreavers · 55%
Series resultSkyreavers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2