DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionSSkyreaversloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rottweilas LATAMwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Skyreavers
No games played over 6 months.
Rottweilas LATAM
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
515 picks · 316 bans
Dark Willow
439 picks · 218 bans
Mirana
391 picks · 176 bans
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 308 bans
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 499 bans
Centaur Warrunner
300 picks · 288 bans
Windranger
280 picks · 132 bans
Earth Spirit
278 picks · 508 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Skyreavers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Rottweilas LATAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Skyreavers 49%Rottweilas LATAM 51%
The model gave 51% on Rottweilas LATAM — the game was taken by Skyreavers.
Game 2prediction correct
Skyreavers 49%Rottweilas LATAM 51%
The model gave 51% on Rottweilas LATAM — the game was taken by Rottweilas LATAM.
Game 3prediction correct
Skyreavers 49%Rottweilas LATAM 51%
The model gave 51% on Rottweilas LATAM — the game was taken by Rottweilas LATAM.
Model check result
Model favoriteRottweilas LATAM · 51%
Series resultRottweilas LATAM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3