Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionSSneakewin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
77:3loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sneake
No games played over 6 months.
7:3
Tidehunteroften banned
sheepsticked · 3 games
Phoenix
Skyward · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
sheepsticked · 1 game
Hoodwink
Skyward · 1 game
Iooften banned
Skyward · 1 game
Marsoften banned
sheepsticked · 1 game
Snapfire
Skyward · 1 game
Tiny
Skyward · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
536 picks · 363 bans
Queen of Pain
468 picks · 568 bans
Mars
423 picks · 607 bans
Weaver
422 picks · 695 bans
Kunkka
349 picks · 538 bans
Spirit Breaker
340 picks · 572 bans
Snapfire
317 picks · 159 bans
Wraith King
277 picks · 364 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% 7:3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% 7:3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:13
Sneake 44%7:3 56%
The model gave 56% on 7:3 — the game was taken by Sneake in 31:14.
Game 2prediction missed48:27
Sneake 44%7:3 56%
The model gave 56% on 7:3 — the game was taken by Sneake in 38:51.
Model check result
Model favorite7:3 · 56%
Series resultSneake 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2