Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionSSneakeloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Black Ice eSportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sneake
No games played over 6 months.
Black Ice eSports
Bane
Sonic · 3 games
Tiny
Sonic · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Lich
Shoe · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Shoe · 1 game
Jakiro
Sonic · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
540 picks · 361 bans
Queen of Pain
474 picks · 570 bans
Mars
436 picks · 597 bans
Weaver
416 picks · 713 bans
Kunkka
352 picks · 541 bans
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 569 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 161 bans
Wraith King
277 picks · 359 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Black Ice eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Black Ice eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:39
Sneake 42%Black Ice eSports 58%
The model gave 58% on Black Ice eSports — the game was taken by Black Ice eSports in 40:07.
Game 2prediction correct20:34
Sneake 42%Black Ice eSports 58%
The model gave 58% on Black Ice eSports — the game was taken by Black Ice eSports in 27:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Ice eSports · 58%
Series resultBlack Ice eSports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2