The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Soniqswin 2:0series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
BOOM Esports
Marssignature
Fbz · 32 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 22 games
Tiny
Yopaj · 18 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
Rubick
Tims · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 13 games
Miranasignature
Tims · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
511 picks · 396 bans
Marci
454 picks · 690 bans
Death Prophet
303 picks · 466 bans
Puck
286 picks · 698 bans
Undying
282 picks · 482 bans
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 396 bans
Batrider
253 picks · 868 bans
Enigma
252 picks · 823 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:3
Soniqs 27%BOOM Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 34:21.
Game 2prediction correct23:17
Soniqs 27%BOOM Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 73%
Series resultSoniqs 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2