The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Soniqswin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
Wildcard Gaming
Snapfire
The Warden · 20 games
Tinysignature
The Warden · 18 games
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 13 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 12 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
iAnnihilate · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
717 picks · 564 bans
Dawnbreaker
499 picks · 659 bans
Marci
492 picks · 799 bans
Puck
488 picks · 1029 bans
Winter Wyvern
369 picks · 425 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
326 picks · 160 bans
Razor
301 picks · 578 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Soniqs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Soniqs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:6
Soniqs 51%Wildcard Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Soniqs — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 30:38.
Game 2prediction missed23:23
Soniqs 51%Wildcard Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Soniqs — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 58:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteSoniqs · 51%
Series resultSoniqs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2