Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
South America Rejectsloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fantasy Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
South America Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Fantasy Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 298 bans
Marci
283 picks · 527 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 250 bans
Undying
259 picks · 457 bans
Pangolier
240 picks · 504 bans
Primal Beast
223 picks · 545 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 321 bans
Crystal Maiden
202 picks · 118 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% South America Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Fantasy Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
South America Rejects 32%Fantasy Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Fantasy Gaming — the game was taken by Fantasy Gaming.
Game 2prediction correct
South America Rejects 32%Fantasy Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Fantasy Gaming — the game was taken by Fantasy Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteFantasy Gaming · 68%
Series resultFantasy Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2