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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
South America Rejectsloss 0:2
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ALIS VENTORUSwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

South America Rejects

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Scofield · 9 games
44%
Doom
Doomsignature
Frank · 8 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 8 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 7 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wits · 6 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 6 games
67%

ALIS VENTORUS

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
waveformn · 8 games
75%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Norma · 6 games
50%
Luna
Luna
paw · 5 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Delight · 5 games
40%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 4 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Delight · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Panda · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
waveformn · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 550 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
533 picks · 409 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
477 picks · 531 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
467 picks · 412 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
465 picks · 236 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
397 picks · 244 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1019 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 909 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% South America Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% South America Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:33
South America Rejects 77%ALIS VENTORUS 23%
The model gave 77% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by ALIS VENTORUS in 31:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkWits
51% · 58 games43% · 232 games
Queen of PainPanda
Queen of Pain
Kunkka
KunkkaDarkMago
50% · 138 games48% · 119 games
DawnbreakerNorma
Dawnbreaker
Bristleback
BristlebackFrank
49% · 236 games54% · 169 games
Shadow DemonDelight
Shadow Demon
Batrider
BatriderElmisho
55% · 367 games46% · 344 games
Tuskwaveformn
Tusk
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeScofield
58% · 65 games
Game 2prediction missed44:40
South America Rejects 76%ALIS VENTORUS 24%
The model gave 76% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by ALIS VENTORUS in 40:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyWits
44% · 377 games58% · 108 games
HuskarPanda
Huskar
Slardar
SlardarDarkMago
50% · 243 games55% · 381 game
BatriderNorma
Batrider
Axe
AxeFrank
47% · 208 games49% · 599 games
Tuskwaveformn
Tusk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
49% · 301 game50% · 184 games
DazzleDelight
Dazzle
Clockwerk
ClockwerkElmisho
46% · 143 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth America Rejects · 91%
Series resultALIS VENTORUS 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2