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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
South Built Esportswin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Army Geniusesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

South Built Esports

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 2 games
100%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Enryu · 1 game
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Abat · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bob · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 1 game
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Enryu · 1 game
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 1 game
100%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Enryu · 1 game
0%

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 12 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 7 games
14%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
db- · 4 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
MamangDaya · 4 games
50%
Riki
Rikioften banned
db- · 4 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
435 picks · 955 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
412 picks · 583 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
362 picks · 672 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
335 picks · 591 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
308 picks · 279 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
271 picks · 180 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
262 picks · 379 bans
61%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 224 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% South Built Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% South Built Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:24
South Built Esports 53%Army Geniuses 47%
The model gave 53% on South Built Esports — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 31:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerAbat
49% · 10 gameslittle data
HuskarMamangDaya
Huskar
Leshrac
LeshracBob
46% · 36 games51% · 22 games
Gyrocopterdb-
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEnryu
52% · 112 games52% · 77 games
MarswoMy
Mars
49% · 59 games
GrimstrokeLym-
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct30:28
South Built Esports 53%Army Geniuses 47%
The model gave 53% on South Built Esports — the game was taken by South Built Esports in 37:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaAbat
53% · 23 games51% · 22 games
Gyrocopterdb-
Gyrocopter
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetEnryu
56% · 47 games50% · 6 games
DoomMamangDaya
Doom
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBob
53% · 75 games52% · 36 games
AbaddonwoMy
Abaddon
38% · 81 game
GrimstrokeLym-
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct24:8
South Built Esports 57%Army Geniuses 43%
The model gave 57% on South Built Esports — the game was taken by South Built Esports in 31:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAbat
58% · 26 games35% · 37 games
MorphlingMamangDaya
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
64% · 34 gameslittle data
Lunadb-
Luna
Alchemist
AlchemistEnryu
70% · 15 games43% · 3 games
Centaur WarrunnerwoMy
Centaur Warrunner
39% · 35 games
GrimstrokeLym-
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth Built Esports · 54%
Series resultSouth Built Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3