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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
South Teamloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Cuyes Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

South Team

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
ArzenT · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ArzenT · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
MonHty · 4 games
50%
Lion
Lion
MonHty · 4 games
75%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Hermit · 3 games
67%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
0%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Argius · 2 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Leostyle · 2 games
50%

Cuyes Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 7 games
86%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Mjz · 3 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Mjz · 3 games
67%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Parker · 3 games
67%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
422 picks · 614 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 389 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
366 picks · 139 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
359 picks · 468 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 345 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 584 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 639 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
313 picks · 163 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Cuyes Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total80% Cuyes Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:47
South Team 37%Cuyes Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 31:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightArgius
53% · 45 games40% · 32 games
PangolierILICH-
Pangolier
Visage
VisageHermit
50% · 22 games56% · 35 games
ClockwerkMjz
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct
South Team 20%Cuyes Esports 80%
The model gave 80% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteCuyes Esports · 80%
Series resultCuyes Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2