PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
South Teamwin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Legacyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
South Team
Visageoften banned
Hermit · 4 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Argius · 3 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
Dawnbreaker
ArzenT · 1 game
Doomoften banned
ArzenT · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
TaiLung · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
ArzenT · 1 game
Legacy
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
418 picks · 315 bans
Hoodwink
416 picks · 441 bans
Weaver
393 picks · 828 bans
Tiny
391 picks · 885 bans
Phoenix
362 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 515 bans
Clockwerk
350 picks · 484 bans
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 537 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Legacy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Legacy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
South Team 44%Legacy 56%
The model gave 56% on Legacy — the game was taken by South Team.
Game 2prediction missed
South Team 44%Legacy 56%
The model gave 56% on Legacy — the game was taken by South Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 56%
Series resultSouth Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2