Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
South Teamloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mad Kingswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
South Team
No games played over 6 months.
Mad Kings
Beastmastersignature
Frank · 12 games
Ogre Magisignature
Mjz · 11 games
Marssignature
Frank · 10 games
Tinysignature
sl4d1n- · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
ArzenT · 7 games
Medusaoften banned
Mnz · 7 games
Grimstroke
Mjz · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Leostyle · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
521 picks · 448 bans
Mars
461 picks · 681 bans
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 542 bans
Bane
406 picks · 287 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 594 bans
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 562 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 629 bans
Chaos Knight
333 picks · 651 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 62%
Hero pool strength58% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% South Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:41
South Team 55%Mad Kings 45%
The model gave 55% on South Team — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 26:31.
Game 2prediction missed23:43
South Team 55%Mad Kings 45%
The model gave 55% on South Team — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 44:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth Team · 55%
Series resultMad Kings 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2