i-League 2021. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
DGDigital Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Elder Titansignature
XCJ · 9 games
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 7 games
Shadow Shaman
September · 6 games
Oracleoften banned
XCJ · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Son GoKu · 5 games
Tusk
September · 5 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
XCJ · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dstones · 4 games
Digital Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
402 picks · 939 bans
Void Spirit
374 picks · 569 bans
Mars
326 picks · 608 bans
Death Prophet
292 picks · 578 bans
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 261 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 171 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
Keeper of the Light
239 picks · 541 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteSparking Arrow Gaming · 56%
Series resultDigital Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed