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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragonloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
XCJ · 4 games
75%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
September · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
September · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Son GoKu · 2 games
100%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Dstones · 2 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
September · 2 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Son GoKu · 2 games
100%

Dragon

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
斗圣 · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
斗圣 · 1 game
0%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 1 game
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
斗圣 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
289 picks · 586 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
262 picks · 332 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
233 picks · 409 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
217 picks · 172 bans
48%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
190 picks · 351 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
184 picks · 579 bans
59%
Wraith King
Wraith King
183 picks · 243 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
181 picks · 100 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 54%
Hero pool strength60% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:22
Sparking Arrow Gaming 52%Dragon 48%
The model gave 52% on Sparking Arrow Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 37:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritDstones
58% · 8 games49% · 23 games
Tusk斗圣
Tusk
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSon GoKu
63% · 4 games
Rubick
RubickSeptember
36% · 7 games
Phoenix
PhoenixXCJ
50% · 4 games
Game 2prediction correct22:2
Sparking Arrow Gaming 56%Dragon 44%
The model gave 56% on Sparking Arrow Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 18:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderSon GoKu
69% · 12 games42% · 28 games
Tusk斗圣
Tusk
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDstones
57% · 3 games
Pangolier
PangolierSeptember
54% · 9 games
Elder Titan
Elder TitanXCJ
38% · 4 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSparking Arrow Gaming · 58%
Series resultSparking Arrow Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2