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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
EHOMEwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
XCJ · 12 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
September · 8 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Son GoKu · 7 games
29%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 7 games
43%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Son GoKu · 7 games
29%
Mirana
Mirana
September · 6 games
33%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
XCJ · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
September · 6 games
33%

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 22 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 20 games
65%
Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 20 games
45%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Frisk · 15 games
40%
Lion
Lion
Frisk · 11 games
45%
Luna
Lunasignature
Frisk · 11 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chalice · 11 games
73%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
xNova · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
473 picks · 190 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
376 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
364 picks · 586 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
358 picks · 871 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
331 picks · 308 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 446 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 409 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 48%
Hero pool strength58% EHOME
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:30
Sparking Arrow Gaming 35%EHOME 65%
The model gave 65% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 32:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMS
54% · 85 games57% · 76 games
Templar AssassinXm
Templar Assassin
Razor
Razor7e
55% · 67 games57% · 6 games
ClinkzSylar
Clinkz
Sand King
Sand KingSon GoKu
46% · 58 games44% · 85 games
BloodseekerChalice
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
PangolierSeptember
56% · 98 games41% · 92 games
LinaFrisk
Lina
Phoenix
PhoenixXCJ
50% · 145 games47% · 194 games
LionxNova
Lion
Game 2prediction correct18:46
Sparking Arrow Gaming 35%EHOME 65%
The model gave 65% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 52:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenMS
41% · 24 games50% · 66 games
Templar AssassinXm
Templar Assassin
Lina
Lina7e
43% · 106 games60% · 82 games
MedusaSylar
Medusa
Axe
AxeSon GoKu
39% · 66 games45% · 36 games
Legion CommanderChalice
Legion Commander
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinSeptember
55% · 142 games58% · 103 games
PhoenixFrisk
Phoenix
Hoodwink
HoodwinkXCJ
41% · 42 games57% · 93 games
ClockwerkxNova
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 77%
Series resultEHOME 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2