OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Phoenix
XCJ · 6 games
Linaoften banned
7e · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
7e · 5 games
Axeoften banned
Son GoKu · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Son GoKu · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
September · 4 games
Razoroften banned
7e · 4 games
Snapfire
7e · 4 games
Execration
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 19 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 16 games
Abaddonsignature
RR · 14 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 13 games
Invokeroften banned
Bob · 12 games
Treant Protector
RR · 12 games
Doomsignature
Force · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
350 picks · 178 bans
Hoodwink
285 picks · 103 bans
Mars
268 picks · 409 bans
Lina
262 picks · 520 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 357 bans
Luna
237 picks · 334 bans
Shadow Demon
229 picks · 239 bans
Nyx Assassin
219 picks · 469 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 36%
Hero pool strength68% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct50:50
Sparking Arrow Gaming 33%Execration 67%
The model gave 67% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 1:00:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaMS
MagnusTino-
TinyNight
BatriderBob
ViperSon GoKu
Vengeful SpiritLuciano
HoodwinkXCJ
SilencerRR
Game 2prediction correct16:22
Sparking Arrow Gaming 34%Execration 66%
The model gave 66% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 23:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverMS
GyrocopterTino-
DoomSon GoKu
PuckBob
TinyNight
BeastmasterLuciano
SilencerXCJ
AbaddonRR
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 76%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2