?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Phoenix Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
Son GoKu · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
XCJ · 7 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Son GoKu · 6 games
67%
Razor
Razorsignature
MS · 6 games
67%
Bane
Bane
XCJ · 5 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XCJ · 5 games
80%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Dstones · 5 games
40%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
XCJ · 4 games
50%

Phoenix Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shining · 9 games
11%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shining · 8 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
zone- · 7 games
14%
Bane
Bane
Lwwnb · 6 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lwwnb · 5 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Helios · 5 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Helios · 5 games
20%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Helios · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
428 picks · 271 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
412 picks · 546 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
366 picks · 424 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
340 picks · 694 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 448 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
300 picks · 401 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
266 picks · 313 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
264 picks · 392 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 30%
Hero pool strength64% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Sparking Arrow Gaming 55%Phoenix Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Sparking Arrow Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteSparking Arrow Gaming · 55%
Series resultPhoenix Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1